THE FATE OF TV: ABC

What I think, feel and hope will happen to the TV shows of each network this season

Grey's Anatomy

Yes, Nielsen Ratings suck, but they still account for most programming decisions. We are just around the time when under-performing shows are axed and bubble shows struggle to survive. I usually agree with the predictions of TVbythenumbers and the cancellation bear… but not always. Past experience has taught me that sometimes my gut feelings are better at predicting cancellations than pure logic. Also, unlike the cancellation bear I will allow myself to be subjective and I will write about what I ‘wish’ would happen.

So, let’s start these series of posts with ABC (the other networks coming soon) [I know you are waiting for The CW]

	Comedies	Dramas
Chopping block	Happy Endings (Cancelled)	Body of Proof (Cancelled) Red Widow (Cancelled)
Bubble	Malibu Country (Cancelled) Last Man Standing (Renewed) How to live with your...(Cancelled)
Safe	The Neighbors (Renewed) Suburgatory (Renewed) The Middle (Renewed) Modern Family (Renewed)	Revenge (Renewed) Nashville (Renewed) Castle (Renewed) Once Upon a Time (Renewed) Scandal (Renewed) Grey's Anatomy (Renewed)

What my logic says

On the comedy side, it is likely that Happy Endings will be cancelled and maybe Malibu Country. As for the dramas, TVbythenumbers has Body of Proof in the bubble, but I am more inclined to think it is definitely a goner. I really don’t see the point of renewing it; they could do better with a new drama next season.

What my gut says

There isn’t much debate regarding the dramas on ABC, most of their dramas are doing great: Revenge, Castle, Scandal, Grey’s Anatomy, Once Upon a Time are hits and Nashville is the best new drama. They already got rid of their underperforming dramas: Zero Hour and Last Resort. They probably want to cancel one more and it has to be Body of proof. As for the comedies, my gut tells me they might cancel Malibu Country and save Happy Endings. They have been doing all sort of things to Happy Ending:, taking it off the schedule and now moving it to Friday… which might be a good thing.  I feel Happy Endings has more buzz and, I would imagine, more fans than Malibu Country. Plus, networks usually prefer to get rid of newbies.

What I hope would happen in an ideal world where I program all 4 networks

Not to be presumptuous (OK, maybe just a little) but I think I would make an excellent TV programmer. I know about finance and economics, I am in the most coveted demographic (women 25-49) and I watch probably 90% of the schedule of any given network. Well… regardless, I don’t make the programming decisions but at least I can write about it! For ABC, everything is pretty straight forward. I wish they had given Last Resort a little more time, but it is unlikely it would have found an audience; it was not the right network for it, which is sad because I thought it was a good show. I think Body of Proof had already been renewed one too many times, so I hope it goes this year. I love most of the ‘safe’ dramas so I am glad they are doing well. Nashville is not everything I expected it to be, but it is good enough.  I guess it deserves to be renewed. I don’t have any especial attachments to any of the endangered comedies so I don’t really care which gets cancelled. The Neighbors is terrible and ideally for me it would have awful ratings, but no such luck.  And that’s it, ABC programming doesn’t have me worried at all. Pretty much everything is going as it is supposed to go.

Update March 6th, 2013
Red Widow premiered to really bad ratings, similar to Zero Hour so I am guessing it will be the next drama to go. Maybe even instead of Body of Proof? I am more inclined to think they will both go. I am not surprised about Red Widow, I called it in my "Midseason review" even before I saw the ratings.

Update April 19th, 2013
ABC hasn't renewed any shows yet. I have made some changes to the above table (in red) and my predictions. Red Widow will certainly be cancelled. Now about Body of Proof, I am not so sure. Here is my deal with Body of Proof. I never liked Dana Delany (I don't think she is a bad actress or anything, I just don't like her for no particular reason), so I gave up on Body after 3 episodes. It might be a really good show for all that I know. Browsing the fan campaigns to save shows I've noticed that Body of Proof has a lot of fan support, which frankly surprises me. It might just be enough to save it. But I wouldn't bet on it. The rest of the dramas will be renewed as previously predicted.

I've changed my outlook on the comedies a little too. I don't think Happy Endings will be renewed. I think Last Man Standing will and probably How to live with your parents. Malibu Country is a goner too and maybe even The Neighbors! Happy dance here!

Update May 7th, 2013 FINAL PREDICTIONS
Not much time left to make predictions, ABC is the network which made less renewal/cancellation announcements this year, so at least there is plenty to predict:

HAPPY ENDINGS--> Cancelled (Cancelled May 10th)
MALIBU COUNTRY--> Cancelled (Cancelled May 10th)
LAST MAN STANDING--> Renewed (barely) (Renewed May 10th)
HOW TO LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS --> Renewed (Cancelled May 10th)
THE NEIGHBORS --> Renewed (sadly) (Renewed May 10th)
SUBURGATORY--> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
THE MIDDLE --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
MODERN FAMILY --> Renewed (without a doubt) (Renewed May 10th)
BODY OF PROOF --> Renewed (just bc it is on its 3rd season and ABC cancelled PP & other freshman dramas, but I make this prediction hesitantly) (Cancelled May 10th)
RED WIDOW--> Cancelled (Cancelled May 10th)
REVENGE --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
NASHVILLE --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
CASTLE --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
ONCE UPON A TIME --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
SCANDAL --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)
GREY'S ANATOMY --> Renewed (Renewed May 10th)

Come back after the ABC upfronts to see how well (or badly) I did with this predictions...

You may also want to read about the fate of other networks

FOX, CBS, NBC, THE CW